A million Monopoly games: a lucky first card wins 35.6%
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OffbeatWorld10 Nov 2026

A million Monopoly games: a lucky first card wins 35.6%

A simulation of one million Monopoly games found that drawing the 'Advance to Boardwalk' card on the very first turn gives a 35.6% win rate. The result comes from a single researcher's model, not from tournament play. It suggests the most expensive square on the board is worth far more as a quick opening purchase than its place at the end of the board implies. The old family-game argument over who got lucky early has a number attached to it.

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