'Black Monday' Fizzles — Nasdaq Surges $650B
Despite pre-market fears of a 'Black Monday' selloff, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6% — its best day since September 21 — adding $650 billion in market cap, with Goldman noting fear was already heavily priced in.
What we know
An account on X was the most-engaged voice on the reversal, reporting the Nasdaq +$650B gain with 72K views. Another account on X sarcastically signed off 'thank you for attending black Monday.' another account on X cautioned this could be a dead cat bounce rather than a genuine bottom, noting buying was not strong. Another account on X covered Goldman's flows desk seeing 'a lot of fear already priced in' after the Gammastrophe. Another account on X warned his long-term SPY model (Buy since May 2025) could flip to a Sell Signal soon as underlying components shift. Semiconductor names led: Another account on X flagged $LRCX, $TSM, $MRVL front-running on earnings anticipation.
How the story developed
Despite pre-market fears of a 'Black Monday' selloff, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6% — its best day since September 21 — adding $650 billion in market cap, with Goldman noting fear was already heavily priced in.
The feared Black Monday didn't materialize — futures are rising and dip buyers are returning to chips after the worst Nasdaq week since Liberation Day. However, analysts flag weak market breadth and Goldman has downgraded its credit preference from AAs to BBBs.
Global inflation rates are rising and multiple major central banks — including the Fed, ECB, BOE, and BOJ — are seen as behind the curve, with more rate hikes expected. US PPI came in hot at 6.3% and Fed Chair Warsh refused to rule out another hike.
An AI credit and valuation scare is hammering tech stocks, with Nasdaq 100 down 2%+ on the day and ~5.2% on the week, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index off ~10% on the week. Anthropic's revenue forecast cut and IPO delay are cited as catalysts alongside hot inflation and possible Fed hike.
Fed Chair Warsh signals an October hold despite 3.7% inflation, sending rate hike odds crashing from 55% to 13%. Markets are repricing accordingly with the 10Y at 5.12%.
Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF Bangkok session, refusing to signal rate direction through end of 2026 while declaring AI-driven investment the global economy's biggest upside and announcing a Fed AI hearing on Nov 16.
US inflation came in hotter than expected, sending Nasdaq down over 2% and wiping $1 trillion from the S&P 500. Fed Chair Warsh's imminent IMF speech is now the key event to watch for rate trajectory.
Markets are watching CPI with a 90% probability of a print above 3.5%. Mortgage rates hit 7.50%, Goldman warns fast money piled into Nasdaq at the top, and the Fed looks on hold until December.
By the Global Eye 24 desk, with AI assistance. Updated as the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.