US equities rebound; inflation expectations and CPI in focus
US stocks rallied strongly (S&P ~+2%, Nasdaq 100 ~+3%) on tech strength and falling oil. The NY Fed survey showed 1-year inflation expectations at 3.91% and rising unemployment fears, with CPI due tomorrow.
What we know
An account on X reports +$1.5T in market cap, with WTI down 3.5% and gold up 1.5%. Another account on X reports NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 3.91% vs 3.78% est., and another account on X notes unemployment expectations at their highest since April 2020. Goolsbee says services inflation is starting to kick up and data centers look like overheating. Bulls like another account on X call stocks cheap, while another account on X calls it a snapback rally in a broader downtrend. Another account on X notes CPI hits Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. Another account on X flags chip CDS wider than hyperscalers.
How the story developed
US stocks rallied strongly (S&P ~+2%, Nasdaq 100 ~+3%) on tech strength and falling oil. The NY Fed survey showed 1-year inflation expectations at 3.91% and rising unemployment fears, with CPI due tomorrow.
The Nasdaq 100 gained as much as 3% and oil dropped about 5%, but NY Fed data showed higher-than-expected inflation expectations. Traders are watching Tuesday's CPI, with Morgan Stanley split between a correction ending and Fed hikes.
NY Fed data showed higher-than-expected inflation expectations and the highest unemployment fears since April 2020, while a Dec 11 shutdown deadline looms. CPI is due Tuesday.
Iran says no negotiations until the US meets seven conditions, even as Brent extends its worst weekly drop since COVID. Unverified chatter points to Doha talks.
Rubio called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous" and said no breakthrough is imminent. ISW reports the US blockade of Iranian ports continues while the IRGC Navy attacks ships near Hormuz.
The US conducted limited strikes on Iranian air defenses at Qeshm Island, with broader strikes reportedly under consideration. Saudi Arabia says danger has passed in key eastern cities, and Turkey is offering mediation.
Iranian outlets report a tanker hitting a mine near Hormuz and an MQ-9 shot down over Qeshm Island, alongside reports of strikes in Isfahan. These are Iranian-sourced claims and are unverified.
Reports of missile strikes on Qeshm Island and Iranian air defenses firing at a US F/A-18 point to an escalating conflict.
Bloomberg reports the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war, sending Brent to its biggest weekly drop since the COVID crash; an unconfirmed report of a US aircraft targeted off Oman adds risk.
Iranian media report a tanker hit a naval mine near Hormuz, while Oman and Iran discussed resuming navigation. Oil is falling on hopes of a post-midterms Iran deal, but shipping disruption persists.
Compiled with AI by the Global Eye 24 desk from public posts across 4 of our monitored source feeds, and updated each hour while the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.