Democratic midterm sweep and crypto policy fallout

Republicans suffered midterm losses that Vance partly blamed on the Iran war, while Democrats signal AI oversight hearings; prediction markets called the results early.

Republicans lost the midterms, and the political fallout is spreading: Vance is being read as distancing himself from Trump, Fox and Murdoch outlets are cooling on him, and Democrats are fighting over war funding.

Mississippi's Senate race is too close to call, Peltola leads in Alaska, and Michigan and Texas results drive debate. California voters rejected a wealth tax despite the blue wave.

Democrats took the House and Senate, and US futures that initially plunged more than 2% rebounded to positive. Commentators frame the result as removing uncertainty and are turning bullish.

Democrats won the House and flipped a record number of Senate seats, including Maine, Texas and Michigan, with markets pricing a sweep. Collins conceded to Troy Jackson.

Early returns and prediction markets point to strong Democratic overperformance, with Dem Senate odds around 81% and Dem sweep odds around 88% per sources.

Election Day coverage dominates the feeds, with Democratic-leaning turnout signals and shifting odds in Kansas and Michigan. Traders are positioning around the results, and seasonality data is being cited as bullish.

Polls are open, with UBS seeing 50% odds of a Democratic sweep and prediction markets pricing a Dem House at 94% and Senate at 77%. Early data suggests weaker GOP turnout, though Texas Senate odds are tightening.

With midterms tomorrow, the Michigan Senate race is dominated by Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed and the Democratic backlash. Ryan Grim also lays out a best-case blue-wave scenario.