US Economic Data Surprises to the Upside; Fed Hold Likely Wednesday
Consumer Confidence smashed estimates (91.7 vs 81.0), New Home Sales beat (676K vs 651K), and markets opened higher. The Fed is widely expected to hold Wednesday, though Morgan Stanley warns it will be a hawkish hold with more hikes to come.
What we know
A wave of US economic beats dominated the morning. Consumer Confidence printed 91.7 vs the 81.0 consensus — the highest in some time — with both present situation (120.4) and expectations (72.6) improving and inflation expectations falling to 4.7% from 5.1% and an account on X. New Home Sales came in at 676K annualized vs 651K est., though median prices fell 3.9% YoY to $400,400. Durable goods were a slight miss (1.8% vs 1.9% est.). Markets responded positively: Nasdaq +0.50%, S&P +0.31% on open. The FOMC decision Wednesday carries a ~95% probability of unchanged rates per Polymarket. Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen sees a hawkish hold with more hikes ahead — another account on X. This week also features ECB, BoJ, UK Budget, and Microsoft/Alphabet earnings.
By the Global Eye 24 desk, with AI assistance. Updated as the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.