UK Inflation Surprise & Fiscal Deterioration
UK September CPI came in at 3.5% YoY (above the 3.4% estimate and up from 3.1%), with PPI Input surging to 8.3% YoY and public sector net borrowing ballooning to £24.5B — all hawkish surprises that complicate BOE's rate path.
What we know
A volley of UK macro data from an account on X showed CPI at 3.5% YoY (est 3.4%), core at 2.8%, and services inflation jumping to 3.7% (vs 3.4% prior). Most alarming was PPI Input YoY at 8.3% — nearly 2pp above estimate — suggesting pipeline inflation pressure is building. Public Sector Net Borrowing hit £24.5B vs prior £10.3B, well above the revised £24.0B estimate. The UK also approved Jackdaw gas field drilling and unveiled a £2B wealth fund.
By the Global Eye 24 desk, with AI assistance. Updated as the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.