Prediction markets gain legitimacy after midterms
Polymarket touts its midterm accuracy, Kalshi dominated volume, and Hudson River Trading has started trading prediction markets.
What we know
Polymarket says 419 of 426 resolved races went to its favorite. Kalshi did about $2.6B in volume vs ~$600M on Polymarket. Bloomberg's scoop via an account on X says HRT is trading up-down markets and invested in Kalshi's $1B round.
How the story developed
Polymarket touts its midterm accuracy, Kalshi dominated volume, and Hudson River Trading has started trading prediction markets.
Kalshi captured about $2.6B of midterm volume, over 4x Polymarket, while new AI forecasting products launch.
Kalshi and other markets called the outcome well before traditional outlets, and traders profited on down-ballot races.
Polymarket and Kalshi priced the Dem sweep early, and commentators credit them for beating traditional media. A Republican-betting Polymarket trader is down $624.8K.
By the Global Eye 24 desk, with AI assistance. Updated as the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.