Bitcoin Down 25% YoY — Only 3% Chance of New ATH This Year

What we know

An account on X delivered the stark data: Bitcoin was at $108K in October 2025 and is now down ~25% YoY with markets pricing only a 3% chance of a new ATH this year. 16,000 BTC options expiring Oct 23 show a max pain of $82,000. Another account on X asked whether sub-$80K momentum is building or if more security breaches are needed to push it there. Another account on X linked the Asia overnight sell-off to China's new 20% tax on offshore trusts (announced July, backdated to January), adding structural selling pressure. Another account on X vented that crypto always needs a million reasons to go up but 'one ambiguous Israel-Iran tweet' sends it to 'goblintown.' On the bull side, another account on X points to Hyperliquid whale buying, higher lows, and FOMC next week as reasons to stay long; another account on X quipped 'doomers are preparing for an internet lockdown — send everything higher.'