AI Existential Risk Estimates Go Viral
A researcher's probability estimates for superhuman AI and AI takeover risk are circulating — including a 67% AI takeover probability and 40% extinction risk conditional on takeover — sparking discussion across feeds.
What we know
an account on X's estimates, RTs by another account on X, put broadly superhuman AI at 10–15% by end of 2027 and ~50% by end of 2030. Conditional on AI development continuing unchecked, he estimates a 67% chance of AI takeover and a 40% chance of human extinction. The discussion is spreading across both tech and crypto communities, with the Goats feed also noting Kimi 3.1 24B as a notable new model.
By the Global Eye 24 desk, with AI assistance. Updated as the story develops. Spot an error? Write to corrections@globaleye24.com.